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President Trump’s strike options against Iran amid the nationwide protests are shaped by his massive military buildup in the Caribbean, which has ballooned since late last year and culminated in U.S. special forces capturing Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.
The Pentagon dispatched dozens of warships, F-35 fighter jets, spy planes, Marines and the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, and its strike group to the U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) starting in November.
The administration is seemingly looking to expand its options toward Iran with the Pentagon moving the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group, which includes fighter planes, guided missile destroyers and at least one attack submarine, toward the Middle East.
But it won’t arrive for days, meaning the U.S. is not primed for a sustained campaign against Iran, which could be “problematic, because this regime is just going to hunker down,” according to a former senior U.S. intelligence official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“So then you’re putting other regional nations are going to have to be prepared for whatever the consequences are, because they’ve already said they’ll strike at U.S. bases,” the ex-senior official said.
Some of America’s key allies in the region – Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Oman – are reportedly lobbying Trump to delay any attacks on Iran, fearing it could trigger a protracted multinational conflict in the Middle East.
But the White House says all options remain on the table as Iran’s hard-line leaders have reportedly killed thousands in an effort to quell protests raging across the country – and promised to strike back at U.S. bases across the region if Trump intervenes.
Former military commanders say that while Trump is somewhat constrained in the Middle East due to his buildup on the other side of the globe, there’s still plenty of firepower at his disposal.
“Whatever plans that you develop and put together obviously can’t include that carrier strike group. So, that doesn’t necessarily limit your options — it just frames the way that you might plan your military operations and activities, where you are relying on perhaps [Air Force] Global Strike [Command], you’re relying on maritime strike from other assets. So it’s land-attack missiles that can come from surface ships that are in the area,” said retired Vice Adm. John Miller, who commanded U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
Miller said the administration can rely on regional allies and partners for staging grounds, but Washington would need to ask for basing permission and overflight permissions, something the presence of an aircraft carrier in international waters would sidestep.
“There’s airborne early warning, all the things that you would need to project out,” Miller said of an aircraft carrier strike group. “So certainly it’s more convenient, but it doesn’t mean that it can’t be done with other assets that we have available to us.”
The Defense Department could send fighter planes stationed at bases in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar or launch long-range Tomahawk missiles from destroyers deployed in the area, according to defense officials. The U.S. also has bombers capable of delivering payloads from Europe or the U.S. – as it showed with its strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the summer – if Trump gives the green light.
Ret. Vice Adm. Robert Harward, who is the former Central Command deputy commander, said not having the full load of naval assets in the Middle East “limits the strike capacity” but does not “deter the effectiveness of it.”