Average 2026 tax refunds up, but well below Trump’s expectations

Tax refunds for 2026 may be higher, but they are falling well below President Trump’s expectations after his One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law last year, ensuring new tax breaks for Americans.

The average check going to Americans is up 11 percent, at $3,462, from 2025’s $3,116, according to filing season data from the IRS gathered before April 3. Refunds issued to taxpayers increased by 3.1 percent, with the total number still undetermined.

The average growth appears to be around $300, not the $775 expected by the IRS or the $1,000 or more that the White House anticipated in January.

Deductions put in place by the law Trump signed last July have fueled refund expectations, including language to block taxes on tips up to $25,000 and a senior deduction for those older than 65 to avoid Social Security taxes.

Americans who receive larger refunds could help drive the economy, though rising costs as a result of the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran could cancel out any stimulus generated by the president’s tax cuts, the Times reported.

But the law’s passage also left some taxpayers seeing little difference on this year’s return.

The Bipartisan Policy Center’s poll found that 38 percent of taxpayers noticed no difference from their taxes last year. Financial stress is widespread with 43 percent of women telling the think tank that they are “just getting by” or “struggling,” with 27 percent of men saying the same.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also made sweeping cuts to Medicaid and nutrition assistance, with federal spending previously being estimated to decrease by about $1 trillion and resulting in about 16 million low-income Americans losing their health insurance by 2034, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office stated last year.